| Setup | Trades | Expectancy | Win% | Avg size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wick reversal * | 6 | +1.64R / $79 | 50.0 | $1,890 |
| breakout | 10 | +0.33R / $13 | 60.0 | $1,838 |
| counter-trend | 25 | +0.09R / -$9 | 40.0 | $1,786 |
| pullback | 22 | -0.67R / -$10 | 36.4 | $1,437 |
Your 4h trades are your most profitable: $629 over 17 (53% win, $37 each).
Your 1h trades bleed: -$391 over 44 (39% win, -$9 each).
Your edge is in the $2.5k-5k size range: $346 over 14 ($25 each).
HYPE won $56, but you risked $337 - 3.8% of your $8,963 balance. Oversized; you got lucky.
HYPE won $209, but you risked $300 - 3.2% of your $9,361 balance. Oversized; you got lucky.
HYPE: 2 times you sold the low and it bounced within 48h.
HYPE: 4 popcorn trades (up big, gave it back).
ETH: 6 popcorn trades (up big, gave it back).
ETH: 5 trades held deep into drawdown before closing.
ETH: 3 times you sold the low and it bounced within 48h.
HYPE: 2 winners you closed early while price kept running - you're shaking yourself out of good entries.
BTC: sold at a loss, then it bounced 2.9x risk within 48h.
HYPE spot: sold at a loss, then it bounced 7.1x risk within 48h.
ETH: 4 losses the engine would have cut earlier.
BTC: 2 winners you closed early while price kept running - you're shaking yourself out of good entries.
ETH: 2 winners you closed early while price kept running - you're shaking yourself out of good entries.
ETH: good entry - it ran 4.2x risk in your favor - but you shook yourself out at -0.2R (~$110 left).
ETH: 2 trades where the engine would have captured more (left money on the table).
HYPE: good entry - it ran 2.4x risk in your favor - but you shook yourself out at -0.1R (~$102 left).
BTC: 3 losses the engine would have cut earlier.
HYPE: 2 trades where the engine would have captured more (left money on the table).
SOL: sold at a loss, then it bounced 3.7x risk within 48h.
BTC: 2 trades where the engine would have captured more (left money on the table).
BTC: held to 3.4x risk in drawdown before closing.
HYPE: 2 losses the engine would have cut earlier.
BTC: 3 popcorn trades (up big, gave it back).
SOL: held to 4.6x risk in drawdown before closing.
SOL: good entry - it ran 3.5x risk in your favor - but you shook yourself out at +0.3R (~$39 left).
VVV: you finished $-28; the 3-phase engine would have held to $10 (phase 3).
AVAX: closed in profit but it ran 8.0x risk further after you exited (~$37 left on the table).
HYPE: held to 3.9x risk in drawdown before closing.
HYPE spot: popcorn. Up 1.1x risk, gave it all back to -0.9R.
VVV: popcorn. Up 2.8x risk, gave it all back to -2.4R.
SOL: held to $-47; the engine would have cut it at $-16 in phase 1.
xyz:META: held to $-34; the engine would have cut it at $-19 in phase 1.
BTC spot: popcorn. Up 1.4x risk, gave it all back to -0.1R.
HYPE: 3 breakout entries with the stop inside the breakout bar.
SOL: entered into a liquidation wick (3.1x body) with no confirmation.
ETH: entered at the breakout-candle extreme but the engine rsk gap ($15.3388) sits inside the bar range ($30.9000). A normal pullback into the bar stops you.
BTC: chased a momentum candle (body 2.2x VWATR) on a green bar.
BTC: entered at the breakout-candle extreme but the engine rsk gap ($161.5412) sits inside the bar range ($539.0000). A normal pullback into the bar stops you.
BTC: entered into a liquidation wick (2.7x body) with no confirmation.
BTC: 3 wick reversal entries with rsk gap wider than the wick.
ETH: clean wick reversal entry but rsk gap ($118.2069) is 3.6x the wick ($32.4000).
SOL: 3 wick reversal entries with rsk gap wider than the wick.
xyz:COIN: clean wick reversal entry but rsk gap ($28.6492) is 3.6x the wick ($7.8800).
HYPE: clean wick reversal entry but rsk gap ($2.1757) is 2.6x the wick ($0.8470).
What setup are you trading on BTC. 17 trades, 47% win, -$282. It's not the coin - are you shaking yourself out, chasing the entry, or not letting it prove itself. Your trading is better on HYPE spot (+$71, 40% win over 5) - what setups were you running there.
Tuesday: $-272 across 13 trades (worst weekday, UTC).
What setup are you trading on ETH. 20 trades, 45% win, -$208.
2 revenge entries (<15min after a loss).
| Metric | All | Long | Short |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trades | 71 | 55 | 16 |
| Win rate % | 40.8 | 32.7 | 68.8 |
| Total PnL $ | -46.8 | -140.43 | 93.63 |
| Avg win $ | 44.5 | 61.96 | 15.92 |
| Avg loss $ | -31.84 | -33.94 | -16.3 |
| Win/Loss ratio | 1.4 | 1.83 | 0.98 |
| Profit factor | 0.96 | 0.89 | 2.15 |
| Expectancy $ | -0.66 | -2.55 | 5.85 |
| Largest win $ | 539.02 | 539.02 | 43.37 |
| Largest loss $ | -140.98 | -140.98 | -46.06 |
| Asset | Trades | Win% | PnL $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| xyz:COIN | 1 | 100.0 | 539.02 |
| HYPE spot | 5 | 40.0 | 71.13 |
| AVAX | 1 | 100.0 | 37.64 |
| JTO | 1 | 100.0 | 11.93 |
| XRP | 1 | 100.0 | 4.32 |
| xyz:GOLD | 1 | 0.0 | -0.55 |
| BTC spot | 1 | 0.0 | -0.97 |
| CRV | 1 | 0.0 | -15.71 |
| HYPE | 13 | 30.8 | -16.07 |
| SOL | 5 | 40.0 | -32.21 |
| xyz:META | 1 | 0.0 | -33.82 |
| xyz:SPCX | 1 | 0.0 | -58.85 |